[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 07 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS IS
A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE FOR SO LATE IN THE YEAR AND IT IS THE
FOCUSING POINT FOR PLENTY OF RAIN.  WLY SHEAR/UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD ENHANCE THE WAVE'S CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OVERSPREADING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE MON.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
54W AND BARBADOS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N13W 6N25W 10N54W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 6N25W 7.5N43W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
BETWEEN 5N-11N FROM 20W-30W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 7N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS LEFT THE AREA HIGH
AND DRY.  THIS FRONT WAS COURTESY OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC.. LEAVING NLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH BROUGHT DOWN THE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES FROM
MEXICO TO THE W GULF ALONG 100W. SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN THE RULE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W
OF LOUISIANA DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET.  LITTLE CHANGE IS
LIKELY TO THE NICE WEATHER WITH MOST SURFACE WINDS OUT OF A
NORTH OR NE DIRECTION UNTIL RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST BY WED.

SW ATLANTIC W OF 65W AND NW CARIBBEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER AREA FROM 31N72W THRU THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W DISSIPATING TO EXTREME NE
HONDURAS.  ANY SIGNS OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE DISAPPEARED.
UPPER ENERGY IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN
67W-74W.  UPPER TROUGH ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT...
FORCING THE STATIONARY FRONT TO START MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE W
ATLC.  FARTHER S INTO THE CARIBBEAN...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FILTERING AS FAR S AS
HONDURAS.  THE STATIONARY FRONT IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME AS UPPER ENERGY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN IS BEING AFFECTED BY TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.. THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W AND DISTURBED WEATHER
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
75W-79W AND S OF 12N W OF 79W.  THESE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA TO COSTA
RICA.  LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A BROAD LOW COULD BE
FORMING NEAR 10N81W.  DIVERGENCE ALOFT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WITH THE NEARBY ITCZ ALSO PROVIDING A KICK
TO THE CONVECTION.  THIS WHOLE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PUSHING
EVERYTHING IN A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL ELY DIRECTION THIS WEEK.   OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE SPINE
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS HELPING FLARE UP CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM A W ATLC WAVE.  WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK DRYING FROM W TO E BUT NO BEFORE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOGGED ACROSS THE LESSER AND
GREATER ANTILLES.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 65W...
LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 26N52W AND A STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYERED LOW NEAR 26N30W ARE THE FEATURES IN THIS AREA.
BETWEEN THE TWO... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN
35W-55W N OF 20N.  LOW IN THE E ATLC IS COMPLICATED WITH THE
MAIN FEATURE NEAR 26N30W BUT A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR 30N34W
AND ANOTHER PIECE OF THE GYRE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 34N20W.
COLD FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 27N31W CONTINUING
TO 23N30W BREAKING UP NEAR 20N36W INTO A DISSIPATING FRONT TO
20N50W.  MODERATE DIVERGENCE IS LEADING TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 22N27W TO 27N23W THEN 29N31W.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE E ATLC THIS WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING SOME IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RULE EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE AFRICAN COAST. A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS S OF A LINE 15N45W 20N17W WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA.  UPPER DIVERGENCE IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BETWEEN 25W-45W THOUGH WITH ONLY GENERALLY
WIDELY SCATTERED CONCENTRATION.

$$
BLAKE



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