[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 07 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10KT.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
51W-56W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 7N40W 9N53W 7N62W 10N70W 9N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 22W-28W...
AND FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
73W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO, SW ATLANTIC W OF 70W, NW CARIBBEAN...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N93W.  CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 88W-95W.  A WEAK 1014 MB
LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. THE LOW HAS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA
AT 31N71W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 20N80W 15N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS.  THE EXTREME
NW CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT THAT EXTEND TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EASE SLOWLY EASTWARD..
TAKING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE E AND S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-95W WITH AXIS FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AN EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N80W.

REST OF CARIBBEAN...
MOVEMENT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN FRONT SHOULD ALIGN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA BY LATE MON
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IN GENERAL E OF THE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEEP- LAYERED MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN
HIGH.  THIS SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS OF THE W CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY N
OF HONDURAS W OF THE CAYMANS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER
RIDGING CONTROLS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
72W.  IN THE E CARIBBEAN... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR PUERTO
RICO AT 20N64W.  W OF 68W THINGS ARE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SINKING WHILE TO THE E OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION... UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CREATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-68W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REST O THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING NW THRU PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT INTO HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 70W...
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE BETWEEN 50W-70W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN WEAK ELY SURFACE FLOW.  THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MORE
UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 32N31W
S TO 27N29W 22N33W 21N46W.  MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS FROM 30N26W TO 24N27W 20N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM  22N-30N BETWEEN 22W-31W.  A SPRAWLING
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NEAR 28N50W
CONTROLS THE AREA ALOFT WITH NLY FLOW BRINGING DOWN THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT.  FARTHER E... LARGE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS JUST NE OF THE MADRAS ISLANDS NEAR 33N34W.  THIS UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGN OF THE TYPICAL ATLC RIDGE
WELL TO THE N WITH WEAKER THAN AVERAGE TRADES OVER THE E ATLC AS
WELL AS ENHANCED CHANCES OF RAIN N OF 25N E OF 35W THRU MID-WEEK.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.  IMPRESSIVE AREA OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE HAS FORMED OVER THE ITCZ TODAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TSTMS E OF THE 35W.  GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS OBSERVED
ALOFT IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH SOME INTRUSION OVER THE E ATLC
FROM THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

$$
FORMOSA



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