[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 06 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER GUATEMALA ALONG 92W S OF 15N
MOVING W 5-10 KT.  WAVE IS TRACKED USING BROAD ROTATION IN THE
EPAC AND ITS INFLUENCE IN THE AREA IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 6N30W 6N60W 8N75W 9N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 15W-17W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
23W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND SW ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W THEN
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.  SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE IS EXPECTED WITH
ONLY MARGINAL UPPER ZONAL FLOW CONDITIONS SLOWLY CONTINUING THE
SWD FRONTAL PROGRESSION.   CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND A FEW HUNDRED MILES BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UP TO 100 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  MODELS SUGGEST A LONG PERIOD OF
GENERALLY NLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL REINFORCEMENTS
OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR.

CARIBBEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO W CUBA TO BELIZE
ALONG 25N80W 17N89W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-84W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 15N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 11N BETWEEN
62W-78W.  A PLUME OF SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS OVER HE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 62W.
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
INTO PUERTO RICO THRU THE WEEKEND AS THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N56W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 45W-70W.  A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W
26N40W 25N45W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N30W 24N33W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
30W-33W...AND FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 27W-29W.  WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IS LOCATED ALONG 25W...N OF 20N...IN THE E ATLANTIC WITH
A LARGE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE MADRAS
ISLANDS AND PORTUGAL AT 36N13W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MAIN FEATURE IS A SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET FROM JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N60W AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ALONG 19N45W 19N15W WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ANY RIDGING IS QUITE WEAK WITH GREATER MOISTURE
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAN AVERAGE.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO 16N50W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 49W-53W.
ALSO...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 47W MOVING W 10-15
KT THAT COULD REINFORCE CONVECTION IN THE AREA E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE ABSENCE OF UPPER RIDGING IS
ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE ITCZ
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS E OF 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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