[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 05 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KT.  DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 82W-89W...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
81W-84W.   THIS ACTIVITY IS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 8N30W 10N50W 10N70W 9N80W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-28W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 35W-42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E THRU TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD THE SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W.  THE FRONT BE EAST OF S FLORIDA BY LATE
FRI.  UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN LIMITED THUS ONLY SPARSE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE W GULF BUT WINDS HAVE RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY'S
GALE EVENT.  THE REST OF THE GULF HAS A STRONG DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N90W.

CARIBBEAN...
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COURTESY OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. BROAD
DIVERGENT FLOW IS OVER THE AREA ENHANCING THE WAVE'S CONVECTION.
THE DIVERGENT FLOW IS DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W.  IN THE E CARIBBEAN...DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH CONTINUES SAGGING S FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W.  VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS HAS CUT OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  S OF THE AXIS...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 70W.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD TO THE N COAST OF S AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
ALLOWING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO INFILTRATE THE ENTIRE E
CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
W ATLC IS COVERED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR LEAVING ONLY
SHALLOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF 60W.  A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SWD ALONG 32N41W TO 27N50W 26N64W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N34W TO 25N40W 22N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 30W-34W.  THIS  FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
32N48W 19N60W 15N68W.  DEEP INTRUSIONS OF MID-LATITUDE ENERGY
ARE LIKELY UNTIL UPPER RIDGING DIMINISHES OVER THE W ATLC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10N/11N E OF 50W. DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 35W. STRONG WLY UPPER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN E/W ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN TO W AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA PENETRATES INTO THE
TROPICAL REGION W OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA



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