[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 05 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W S OF
20N MOVING W 15 KT. DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PROVIDING THE
SUPPORT FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
SPREADING FARTHER INLAND AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA THRU THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 7N20W 11N50W 9N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 10W-14W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E THRU TEXAS INTO THE GULF.  THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD THE SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W CLEARING S FLORIDA BY LATE FRI.  UPPER LIFT
WILL REMAIN LIMITED BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W GULF BUT
WINDS HAVE RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY'S GALE EVENT.  THE REST OF
THE GULF HAS A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
BAHAMAS W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W.  SUBSIDENCE AND
MIDDLE/UPPER DRY AIR IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COURTESY OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/90W. BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW IS OVER THE AREA ENHANCING THE WAVE'S CONVECTION.
THE DIVERGENT FLOW IS DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W.  IN THE E CARIBBEAN...DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH CONTINUES SAGGING S FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W.  VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS HAS CUT OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  S OF THE AXIS...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 70W.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD TO THE N COAST OF S AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
ALLOWING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO INFILTRATE THE ENTIRE E
CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
W ATLC IS COVERED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR LEAVING ONLY
SHALLOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF 60W.  A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY
MOVING SWD ALONG 32N44W TO 27N55W 28N68W STATIONARY TO 32N71W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 26N40W 19N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 32W-34W.  THIS  FRONT AND
TROUGH ARE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N48W 19N60W 15N68W.  DEEP
INTRUSIONS OF MID-LATITUDE ENERGY APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL UPPER
RIDGING DIMINISHES OVER THE W ATLC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N15W NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10N/11N E OF 50W. DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 35W. STRONG WLY UPPER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN E/W ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN TO W AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA PENETRATES INTO THE
TROPICAL REGION W OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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