[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 04 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
BUT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
77W-88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N12W 8N26W 10N42W 11N62W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 0F 9N FROM 20W-28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
8N48W-14N45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N E
OF 41W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N FROM
50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING NE INTO ARKANSAS
AND MISSOURI WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SW INTO N
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS INTO THE GULF OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST S ALONG 26N90W 22N92W INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE NE LEAVING LESS UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE GULF AND THE SE
U.S. FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE E
SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
THE MID WEST ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OVER THE GULF...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N91W WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE FAR E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR TO THE E OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS LEAVING
THE AREA WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN SQUEEZED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING
TO THE N OVER THE GULF AND A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM W CUBA SSW TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING ALMOST NON EXISTENT. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N79W N ACROSS JAMAICA TO E CUBA. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC...DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A NARROWER RIDGE-TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF
55W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS. TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 37W-55W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 41W TO 23N
THEN EXTENDS SW ALONG 19N53W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
17N73W. THE TROUGH IS THE DELINEATION OF DRY SUBTROPICAL AIR
AND THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N75W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N49W TO 20N61W THEN
DISSIPATES TO 20N67W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE E ATLC
IS ALONG 35W N OF 25N WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING S TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 30W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
10N/11N E OF 45W WITH ANTICYCLONIC S OF 25N. DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 40W. ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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