[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 03 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OBSERVED WITH NO
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N13W 8N30W 10N42W 11N60W.    SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 54W-60W AND FROM 8.5N-12N BETWEEN
44W-49W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N-12.5N FROM 30W-40W.  A FEW
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS MOVING NE THRU SE KANSAS
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SW OVER N MEXICO.  ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM S
MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING OUT
LEAVING A LITTLE LESS UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND
OVER MEXICO AS STATIONARY ALONG THE E SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
WITH UPSLOPE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE E
SLOPES.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE GREAT BASIN OF THE UNITED STATES ALONG THE E COAST OF
MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE FAR SW GULF. FARTHER E...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS WESTWARD ALONG 24N/25N TO 88W IS LEAVING DRY/TRANQUIL
WEATHER.  ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING TO THE
N OVER THE BAHAMAS AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO YUCATAN DELINEATES
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE
AXIS AND DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR TO THE N.  BROAD AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS TROUGHING DIGS IN THE E CARIBBEAN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC... DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N43W TO 17N60W...AND
BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC.  STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS PRODUCING IS PRODUCING A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 31N37W TO 24N43W.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LIES TO THE W ALONG 31N42W TO 24N50W THEN 21N64W THEN
DISSIPATING TO 23N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH PLENTY OF LOW/MID CLOUDS THINNING ESPECIALLY W OF
70W. HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE E ATLC WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
31N21W RIDGING SW TO 19N41W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N30W BRIDGING W TO 10N53W AND E
TO 10N13W.   DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING ITCZ
CONVECTION E OF 40W.  FARTHER W... WLY WINDS FROM A TROUGH ALONG
20N53W TO 17N60W ARE LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
BOUNDARY... THOUGH IT IS ASSISTING CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

$$
BLAKE

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