[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 03 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED
WITH THE WAVE BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W INCLUDING JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N10W 8N25W 9N40W 9N55W 12N75W 8N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 40W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED OVER N TEXAS
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SW OVER NW MEXICO.  ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GLFMEX CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A MOISTURE LADEN LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH DYNAMICS TIED TO A 100
KT UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
SE TEXAS IS PROVIDING THE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE STRONGEST AND
MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE SW GLFMEX
WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST N OF THE
AREA OVER MISSISSIPPI.  THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO
AS STATIONARY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WITH OVERRUNNING
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE E
SLOPES.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM THE GREAT BASIN OF THE UNITED STATES ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GLFMEX.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE E GLFMEX AND
FLORIDA...STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGING FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD
ALONG 24N/25N IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION
SAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE W
ATLC OVER FLORIDA WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN...
NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  THE TROUGH AXIS DELINEATES AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF THE AXIS AND A
A DRY/STABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST NUMEROUS NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N45W TO
17N60W...AND BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH.  GOOD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM OF A COLD FRONT FROM 32N45W TO 25N50.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD ALONG 22N60W THEN DISSIPATING TO
23N67W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF BOUNDARY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY NLY FLOW PREVAILS ALL THE WAY THE SE UNITED
STATES COAST.  OVER THE E ATLC A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
SKIRTS THE N EXTENT OF THE AREA ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY N OF 30N
BETWEEN 10W-20W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AN E/W ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 13N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 45W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF
40W. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC PENETRATES WELL INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

$$
RHOME



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