[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 03 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS ALONG
74W S OF 19N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST ALL OBVIOUS
SIGNATURE WITH STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SPANNING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BUT IT CONTINUES TO BROADEN THUS THE AXIS SEEMS
NOT TO BE MOVING. MID UPPER LEVELS ARE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW THUS THE SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE.
SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N10W 7N29W 12N55W 10N67W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
10N35W-14N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-40W AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
40W-61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH S AND GRADUALLY ACROSS THE W
GULF TO THE E OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...BRINGING FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60W F ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS. THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF S OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N92W SSW ALONG 22N94W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 19N95W...THEN TURNS SHARPLY NW TO 18N96W THEN
FOLLOWS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
26N100W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SE
LOUISIANA THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/105 NM OF LINE FROM 23N94W THROUGH THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF A
LINE FROM 23N93W TO ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W THEN SPREADS
ACROSS MOST OF MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT IS BEING PUSHED BY A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED SE OF AMARILLO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS COVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND W ATLC REMAINS UNDER FAIR SKIES
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK. IN THE W ATLANTIC A BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING E TO 65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH
A NEAR STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N74W.

CARIBBEAN...
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...AREAS OF CONVECTION COVER
MOST OF THE AREA FORCED PRIMARILY BY UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N81W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOIST MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AND
CONTINUES E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE
IS CENTERED ALONG A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THAT
IS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE 12N76W-14N80W AND S OF 10N TO JUST INLAND OVER
PANAMA FROM 77W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM 63W-84W.

REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC
RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW E OF 40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST
WITH AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 24W-42W. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING SW ALONG
27N52W TO 24N63W WHERE IT DISSIPATES W TO 24N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
26N48W 29N43W TO BEYOND 32N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM WITHIN 90/105 NM OF LINE FROM
24N48W TO 31N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE E ATLANTIC FROM
JUST S OF MADEIRA NEAR 32N16W EXTENDING W ALONG 31N26W THEN NW
TO 34N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF 31.5N FROM 23W-29W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 45W...PRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE OVER THE ITCZ AXIS
AND SUPPORTING THE ITCZ CONVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING
OUT OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING A CONSIDERABLE PLUME OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE JUST TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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