[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 02 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W S OF 20N MOVING
W 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALONG 91W
S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 7N30W 10N50W 9N65W 12N72W 9N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-35W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 35W-57W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 60W-68W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 70W...
AS OF 1500 UTC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 26N96W 21N97W 23N100W MOVING RAPIDLY SW DOWN
THE MEXICAN COAST.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W PRODUCING RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER
WITH SE FLOW. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
31N74W AGAIN PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-90W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO
N COLOMBIA ALONG 72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 60W-68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 12N90W.  A NARROW TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W 18N81W.  UPPER
AIR DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AND ITCZ CONFLUENCE
AT LOW LEVELS...ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W AND THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N40W 22N50W 21N55W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 30W-35W.  1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N21W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD AND FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF
21N BETWEEN 25W-70W  WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS S OF THE TROUGH TO
10N...WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AND
ENHANCING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION. FARTHER E...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING LIES ALONG 11W AND IS MOVING E OVER W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA




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