[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 02 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO THE FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...THE AXIS APPEARS TO
BE CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N BETWEEN 58W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALONG
90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. THE ENERGY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
89W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
88W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 9N20W 6N31W 8N40W 9N46W 10N53W 14N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/105
NM OF LINE 9N45W-13N56W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION COVER A
BROAD AREA OF THE E TROPICS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 9W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

TEXAS COAST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVIOUSLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE TEXAS
COAST AND NORTHERN MEXICO ARE NOW COMBINED WITHIN ONE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT 02/0900
UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER TO A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W
INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE INTO NE MEXICO TO 25N98W
THEN W AND NW OVER NE MEXICO. MOST OF THE COLD AIR AND SURFACE
ENERGY IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO MIDWAY BETWEEN
TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE N ALONG 27N97W TO THE N COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR GALVESTON THEN FANNING EASTWARD ACROSS W LOUISIANA. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW REMAINS CENTERED WELL W OF THE FRONT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W...
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N76W AND A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERING THE MOST OF THE
GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W...AND THE W ATLC W OF
70W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N74W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 50W...
BAD WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL
WAVE...A SURFACE TROUGH...AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC. MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE S COAST OF
JAMAICA RETROGRADING W WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE N OF 14N E OF 70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N52W TO 21N65W AND IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALIGNED FROM PANAMA COAST TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 10N77W-11N82W
THEN N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 14N84W.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W AND THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A BROAD AND FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N
FROM 25W-70W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM
A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW ALONG 26N43W TO A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 22N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM 29N38W 30N31W TO 33N27W. WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS S
OF THE TROUGH TO 10N...WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE
ITCZ AND ENHANCING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION. FARTHER
E...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES ALONG 11W AND MOVING E OVER
W AFRICA. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS WHICH IS STRENGTHENING THE NE FLOW MOVING ALONG THE
MOROCCAN COAST INTO THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net