[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 01 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF
18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ENTANGLED WITH THE BASE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION MAKES THE WAVE LOCATION DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 57W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
IS ALONG 87W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL S ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND CONTINUES
INTO THE E PACIFIC.  A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE 23N87W
15N84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N1W 6N30W 10N50W 12N70W 10N85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 7W-23W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 23W-38W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-95W.  ABUNDANT
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  ON THE SURFACE
... A COLD FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 32N94W 27N97W 25N100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 93W-96W MOVING NE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 29N61W.  PRESSURES OVER THE GULF ARE GRADUALLY
DROPPING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TEXAS MOVES EAST.

CARIBBEAN...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN AS TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.   IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF THE HISPANIOLA N OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-83W.  IN
ADDITION...A 50-70 KT WESTERLY JET EXTENDS NE OF PUERTO RICO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER  THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N34W
SW TO 27N40W 22N50W.  A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E
OF THE ABOVE FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N18W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 23N BETWEEN 33W-71W USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  OVER THE E
ATLC...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG 20W N OF 18N
BETWEEN 5W-40W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXTENDING FROM OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SPREADING AS FAR E AS 35W. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING NW/SE TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 23N31W TO 16N29W IS BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE W AND CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE N. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING INTO THE DRIER AIR HENCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.

$$
FORMOSA



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