[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 01 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF
18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ENTANGLED WITHIN A BROAD
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS AND JUST TO THE N OF THE
EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES. THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS ENTANGLED WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. ALL OF THIS MAKES ITS EXACT
LOCATION RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE AREA ALSO LIES UNDER THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS NE OF PUERTO
RICO AND THIS HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER A
LARGE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
57W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL S ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W TO
15N82W THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 45/60 NM TO 23N87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 8N22W 6N30W 8N42W 10N50W 12N63W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF 9N FROM 25W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-37W...
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 37W-45W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W-70W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N FROM
70W-100W AND CENTERED ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA
EXTENDING N TO OVER THE E UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N
W OF 95W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL INLAND OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST TODAY...SPREADING E TO OVER FLORIDA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR
29N67W AND PRESSURES OVER THE GULF ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
DROP AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST.

CARIBBEAN...
UNSETTLED WEATHER SPANS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR W CARIBBEAN
AS A THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AMONG A
SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FILTERING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 70W-82W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW
NOW ALONG THE S COAST OF THE HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THIS CIRCULATION/TROUGH IS
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY E
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A 50-70 KT WESTERLY JET EXTENDS NE
OF PUERTO RICO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM
33W-70W USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE FROM
23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-80W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N31W SW
TO 26N45W. A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W SW TO 26N48W
THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N60W TO JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO.
OVER THE E ATLC...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
21W AND TRANSITIONS TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE ABOVE
FRONT/TROUGHS WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N25W AND A
SECOND WEAKER HIGH JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC N FROM
10N-30N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXTENDING FROM OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SPREADING AS FAR E AS 35W. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING NW/SE TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 23N31W TO 16N29W IS BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE W AND CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE N. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING INTO THE DRIER AIR HENCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.

$$
WALLACE


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