[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 31 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 7N37W 5N49W 7N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF GHANA FROM 1N-6N E OF
3W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE COAST FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED S OF NOVA SCOTIA IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA TOWARDS THE N ATLC WATERS BUT A SECOND HIGH PRES CELL
IS DEVELOPING SE OF CAPE HATTERAS AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE TO S TEXAS WHICH
IS ENABLING MOIST SELY FLOW TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST FROM
THE S. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING ASHORE WITHIN
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER SE FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI AND FT.
LAUDERDALE AS WELL AS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE WINDS ARE
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. OTHER SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM
OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST NEAR A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS SE TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS HAS DISSIPATED BUT PIECES OF ENERGY THAT WERE SHED OFF
ARE STILL MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. A
WEAK SFC TROF IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS
AND HAS TRIGGERED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO
LOCATED S OF HAITI FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 72W-80W IN A MORE OR
LESS LINEAR E/W BAND. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY W OF THE CAYMANS IS
BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THEN SWD OVER THE REST OF CNTRL AMERICA. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS ADVECTING DRY PACIFIC AIR TOWARDS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE W ATLC WATERS REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE SRN SIDE OF THE
STRONG HIGH PRES OFF NEW ENGLAND WHICH IS PRODUCING FAIRLY BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS W OF 60W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING EWD
ALONG 32N58W TO THE SRN BAHAMAS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. TO THE E...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG 32N43W 26N50W 20N64W WITH A 1018 MB LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NEAR 29N44W. A SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 32N43W 27N41W IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM E
OF THE LOW FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 39W-42W AND SCATTERED MODERATE N
OF THE FRONT FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 49W-52W. THE OLD SFC LOW WHICH
WAS LOCATED SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A SFC TROF AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG 16N60W 24N50W.
FARTHER S...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE AMAZON DELTA
WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT A SFC TROF N OF
SURINAME IS STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 51W-56W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF GUYANA
AND E OF TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.

EAST ATLANTIC...
A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 27N24W SWWD TO 6N40W IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AND IS DRAWING A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD TOWARDS THE W
AFRICAN COAST. A SMALL AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS DROPPING S
TO THE W OF THE LOW...FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 21W-34W.
OVERALL...THE REGION IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING W FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 40W OVER THE
SUBTROPICS. THE ITCZ IS ALSO RELATIVELY QUIET EXCEPT FOR
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WHICH HAVE BEEN FORMING BETWEEN 10W-20W. EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME SAHARAN
DUST HAS MADE ITS WAY OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT EXTENDING WITHIN
200/250 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N17W NW PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO 20N31W.

$$
BERG



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