[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 29 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 4N30W 4N38W 1S50W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N18W 6N22W 6N24W 5N27W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...
AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W...FROM 5N
TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N49W 3N51W
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W IN THE
WATERS EAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM A NORTH CAROLINA 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 35N76W TO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N85W INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N93W TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR
24N96W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE 32N47W 24N60W 17N75W
SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 29/0000 UTC
SHOWS MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAITS FLORIDA...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF 28N. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ELSEWHERE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE FRI/SAT WHEN MOISTURE
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...GOING FROM THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 20N67W NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...ANGLING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST REACHING 17N75W.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 17N75W TO 15N78W TO THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N83W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND THE
COASTS FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...AND FROM 14.5N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 74W JUST SOUTH OF HAITI TO 80W.

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N70W. THE CHANGE
IN FLOW DIRECTION IN THIS GENTLE AND NOT SHARP AND DRASTIC.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF 34N61W 30N70W 30N80W.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE ATLANTIC TO CARIBBEAN SEA
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC PASSES THROUGH
32N47W TO 24N60W...TO 20N67W...EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD
LINE FOR THIS FRONT IS ALONG 31N50W 26N56W 23N60W 19N68W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS LEADING EDGE CLOUD
LINE. A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N50W...
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N43W. EXTENSIVE OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS RUNS FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE INTO
NORTHERN AFRICA NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 10W.

$$
MT

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