[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 25 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 7N20W 5N40W 15N50W 7N70W 6N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 7W-15W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-31W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
AND NORTHERN MEXICO N OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-120W.  AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.  THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 100 KT TO 120 KT.  ON THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF NEAR 24N85W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 25N90W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W. GALE SEA CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 85W-91W.  TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING
FROM THE S TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N86W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEYOND 32N70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WHILE THE W ATLANTIC HAS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE N OF 22N
AND W OF 70W.  ON THE SURFACE PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING SW.  MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SW
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR JAMAICA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA MOVING W.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  THREE EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
ARE AT 33N50W...33N39W...AND 21N50W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER MOROCCO NEAR 32N2W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
20N E OF 25W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 20N E OF 30W.  ON THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB GALE LOW IS
NEAR 30N42W.  TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS CENTER TO 22N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 40W-50W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
18N50W TO 6N56W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
TROUGH.  A 80 KT TROPICAL JET IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 8N55W
TO 15N45W THROUGH 16N25W.

$$
FORMOSA



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