[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 24 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N13W 4N20W 3N40W 1N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
BETWEEN 9W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 27N105W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A VAST AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
COVERS FLORIDA AND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM 24/1200 UTC SHOW THAT WIND
SPEEDS RANGE FROM 70 KT TO 90 KT. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N74W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEAR
25N83W TO 24N90W 24N93W TO 18N93W IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W TO 27N94W TO 25N93W. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP POSSIBLY IN THE CENTRAL
GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS COVER
THE WHOLE GULF AND FLORIDA EXCEPT SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE INDICATED TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUING EASTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO EAST OF 88W...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 62W...
RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SUBSIDENCE IS COMPARATIVELY GREATER EAST OF
THE LINE 20N67W 14N70W...AND SOUTHWEST OF 14N70W 18N80W 20N87W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN CLOUD CLUSTERS EAST OF 20N78W 15N83W.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE STATIONARY TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 62W. EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ABOUT 12 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...
NEAR 30N40W. SURFACE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 29N40W. TROUGH
FROM THIS CENTER TO 24N40W AND 20N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N49W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BURIED
IN THE WHOLE LARGER SCALE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...APPEARS TO BE
ALONG 26N55W 16N53W...FUELING THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS FOUND FROM 22N56W TO 18N55W
TO 14N52W. A TROPICAL JET IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 8N55W TO
15N45W THROUGH 16N25W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N4W TO 33N26W. AN 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N8W ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHERN MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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