[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 22 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N13W 5N20W 5N30W 9N37W 9N45W 5N54W...AND FROM THE COLOMBIA
COAST NEAR 6N77W TO 7N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT FROM 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EAST
TEXAS NEAR 30.5N94W TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...INLAND IN NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 28N103W...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
33N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE GULF WATERS NEAR 28.5N TO 30.5N IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND FROM LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
THIS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS SWINGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO THE WEST...
NORTHWEST...AND NORTH OF 32N92W 27N95W 25N107W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JUST SOUTH OF
20N71W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE EAST OF 70W...SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA...
AND NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W...BECOMING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF 70W...MOVING TOWARD THE
BASE OF A TROPICAL ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE
BASE IS NEAR 12N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOW SOUTH OF 13N84W 16N72W
16N60W. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA...CURVING THROUGH
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N60W TO 25N63W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JUST SOUTH
OF 20N71W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 22/2100 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND THE UNITED STATES COAST.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 69W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N39W TO A SECOND AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N39W TO 12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W...AND
FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

$$
MT


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