[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 21 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 6N14W 3N24W 5N36W 3N43W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
8W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE SURFACE RIDGE FROM ATLANTIC 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N74W TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W. ANOTHER RIDGE FROM
32N74W
TO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N86W TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR
14N86W. 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N99W ALONG
THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME...FROM A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 33N97W TO 30N100W 30N104W AND 33N107W
IN WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 27.5N TO THE LOUSIANA COAST NEAR 30N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER LAND
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 32N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 21N72W TO NORTHERN HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N74W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N74W TO
EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W...CURVING TO 13N83W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR JAMAICA FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...AND THE
OTHER LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN HONDURAS AND MUCH OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE
21/2100 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
SOUTH OF 13N84W 15N70W 16N60W. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
STARTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS JUST WEST OF SOUTH
AMERICA...CURVING THROUGH NICARAGUA...TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N63W.
STATIONARY FRONT 25N63W TO 21N72W TO NORTHERN HAITI. ONE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH
NEAR 32N31W...WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 20N43W.
THIS COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC CENTERS IS CARVING OUT A TROUGH
WHICH EVENTUALLY REACHES 4N50W JUST EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 25N
BETWEEN 20W AND 44W.

$$
MT

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