[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161109 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 16 DEC 2004

CORRECTION TO INCLUDE INFORMATION ABOUT EASTERN
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N18W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 7N15W 6N20W 6N30W 7N40W 6N50W 5N60W...AND FROM 5N77W
AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 5N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONT FOR THIS REGION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO...
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20N106W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 85W. OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDS
ARE IN MOST PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA FEEDS IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVERYWHERE
ELSE. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED NORTHWARD
BY THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ORIGINATING IN PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...REACHING AT LEAST 18N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
JAMAICA TO 16N80W...CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN NICARAGUA THE
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 26N63W TO 20N68W
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N70W AND
12N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND
69W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 40 TO
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 16N71W 13N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER IN SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. THIS IS THE TROUGH WHICH IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PASSING THROUGH
32N61W...ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 26N66W 22N70W TO
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 TO 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N67W
24N62W 30N57W...COMBINING WITH THE COLD FRONT IN ORDER TO
PRODUCE SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS NORTH OF 25N. AN ATLANTIC SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM 30N63W TO 26N64W 17N70W 12N74W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W. THE
SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MOROCCO TO 25N22W AND
24N34W. EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NOW NEAR 22N18W.
THIS CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CENTER IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 16W
AND 21W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WATERS FROM
20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

$$
MT


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