[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 12 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 8N48W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W
AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC W OF 63W/FAR NW CARIBBEAN...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE E COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W TO 22N83W WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES E OF THE AXIS AND ABOUT 15 DEGREES
W OF THE AXIS. THE TROUGH IS MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. AN
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 33N75W. MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR
21N85W TO 25N74W THROUGH 32N70W. WINDS ARE ABOUT 50 KNOTS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 90-100 KNOTS AT 32N.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N69W TO 24N76W TO
THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N86W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE GUATEMALA COAST. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE LOUISIANA AND A 1022 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 21N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT S OF 27N. BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF THE FRONT TO 86W.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...COVER
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 18N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND LOCATED FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
47W AND 53W. OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS THIS FEATURE HAS
DRIFTED SW. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N
BETWEEN 45W AND 62W. FURTHER N A RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 55W
N OF 25N. OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 25N E OF 35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 23W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N17W TO 26N21W TO 25N30W TO 26N40W.
AN ESTIMATED 50-60 KNOT WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED FROM 20N45W TO
22N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 22N. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS.

$$
CAB

WWWW
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