[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 12 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 10N46W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
3N22W 7N30W LINE AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC W OF 65W/FAR NW CARIBBEAN...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE UNITED STATES AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W TO 20N86W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN EMBEDDED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
NEAR 32N77W. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH NEAR 21N87W TO 26N75W THROUGH 32N73W. WINDS ARE ABOUT
50 KNOTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 90 KNOTS
AT 32N. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W TO
24N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS LOCATED FROM 25N74W TO 16N83W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SW LOUISIANA AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT S OF 27N. BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF THE FRONT TO 88W.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...IN THE 24 TO 40 KNOT RANGE...COVER
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 19N52W. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SW.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND
62W. FURTHER N A RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 56W N OF 25N. OVER
THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS LOCATED N OF 25N E OF 45W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N24W TO 26N35W TO 27N46W. A 60-70
KNOT WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED FROM 20N45W TO 23N30W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST AT 22N.

$$
CAB

WWWW
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