[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 11 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N35W 8N49W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS OF 6N19W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N28W 10N37W
LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC W OF 75W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES HAS ITS SOUTHERN PORTION COVERING THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 22N93W.
THE TROUGH IS MOVING E ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A STRONG JET LIES FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 22N94W NE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N78W. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT
THE SOUTHERN END...40-50 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 100-110 KNOTS AT
THE NORTHERN END. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N76W TO 26N82W TO 19N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM SE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N73W
ACROSS HAITI AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
BEYOND 32N64W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC/E CARIBBEAN...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 21N50W...MOVING WSW ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
WSW FROM THE CIRCULATION TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LOCATED UP TO 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
JET ORIGINATES NEAR 23N48W AND CONTINUES E TO 26N40W TO 25N25W
TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 24N. EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE AREA S
OF THE JET TO 10N E OF 45W. ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE
AREA OF OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W
AND 44W.

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR NE PART OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED ALONG 29W N OF
29N...MOVING ESE ABOUT 30 KNOTS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N
OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N32W TO 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITH 60
NM OR SO EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED OFF THE NW AFRICAN COAST THROUGH 32N14W TO 25N23W.

$$
CAB

WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net