[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 11 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N34W 9N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 7N23W AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 8N32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC W OF 75W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES HAS ITS SOUTHERN PORTION COVERING THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 20N94W. A
STRONG JET LIES FROM THE MEXICAN COAST AT 22N TO 25N88W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N78W. WINDS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN END...40-50 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 100-110
KNOTS AT THE NORTHERN END. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N78W TO 25N85W TO 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS ALSO LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A FEW MODERATE TSTMS ARE APPROACHING THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE S.

CARIBBEAN W OF 70W/ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N75W
ACROSS HAITI TO BEYOND 32N65W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC/E CARIBBEAN...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 21N49W...NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR PUERTO RICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
LOCATED UP TO 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A JET
ORIGINATES NEAR 23N48W TO 27N40W TO 26N20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST
AT 24N. EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE AREA S OF THE JET TO 10N E OF
40W. ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N52W. THE FRONT IS
MARKED BY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A 32N34W 31N38W LINE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE FRONT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W TO 26N20W TO 24N30W.

$$
CAB


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