[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 10 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N25W 9N50W 9N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 6N15W 6N20W
8N33W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
33W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS CRUISING THRU THE GULF
TONIGHT DRAGGED BY A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE
FEAR N CAROLINA THRU DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THEN S OF TAMPA INTO
THE GULF ALONG 23N91W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W.  MAIN UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE AREA LEAVING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 90W.  ISOLATED ACTIVITY LIES UP
TO 200 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N MOVING THRU S & CNTRL
FLORIDA. THE FRONT SPELLS THE END OF THE WARM DECEMBER
CONDITIONS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SAT
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SWEEPING IN.  WEAK SFC
TROF NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC & BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

CARIBBEAN...
ATLC SFC RIDGE IS LOCATED N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES KEEPING
PERSISTENT ELY TRADES OVER THE REGION THOUGH A BIT WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT ERODES THE RIDGE FROM THE
W.  COMPLEX MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH MODERATE ELYS IN
THE MID LEVELS TOPPED BY UPPER LEVEL WLYS.  IN ANY EVENT MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER IN THE AREA WITH MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN.  WEAK UPPER TROF IS ALIGNED JUST OFF THE MOSQUITO
COAST OF NICARAGUA DOWN TO COSTA RICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM LAKE MARACAIBO TO JAMAICA AND E CUBA. THE
DRIEST AIR IS LOCATED E OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE CONFLUENT FLOW
IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER SE PANAMA ALONG THE ITCZ AS WELL AS MOVING W ACROSS
TRINIDAD AND THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

WEST ATLANTIC...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL W OF 50W WITH LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE AREA EXCEPT A FEW PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 76W.
THE 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N56W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE CNTRL BAHAMAS TO N CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM N TO
S.  MID LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE RIDGE ALONG 21N TO
65W AND HAS INITIATED A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A LINE ABOUT
200/300 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPANS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE E ATLC WATERS AND A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER W
AFRICA IS DRAWING THIS MOISTURE EWD TOWARDS THE CONTINENT. A
MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N50W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
EAST OF THIS FEATURE PLUS THE TRAILING TROF IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 37W-50W...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE CIRRUS EXPANDING DOWNSTREAM. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SINKING SWD EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE CANARYS INTO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N20W
THEN CONTINUING SW TO 25N24W 24N33W.  NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID
CLOUDINESS LIES ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY N OF 30N.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. FARTHER S...A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N21W WITH A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 12N34W.  DIVERGENCE W OF THE HIGH ALONG 6N
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 33W.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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