[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 06 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 5N30W 2N40W 1N44W...AND FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
6N77W TO 5N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N40W 7N50W
10N60W AND 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD...WITH ITS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS. THE TROUGH WITH THE CYCLONIC CENTER STRETCHES INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO. A SHIELD OF OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 23N109W
26N103W 30N99W...AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 24N88W 24N80W
25N72W 31N68W...EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE...ALONG 30N81W
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO 26N91W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
STRETCHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...GOING FROM PUERTO RICO TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...NORMALLY NEAR THE ITCZ.
ONE AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AT 06/2100 UTC
SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING
UNDER SOME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW...
ESPECIALLY OVER LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS...FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN COASTAL AREAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 30N52W TO 22N60W.
SURFACE TROUGH 30N49W 25N53W 21N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 28N50W 30N48W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 29N51W 26N55W...AND 25N52W 22N57W. THE SURFACE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER OF OTTO HAS DISSIPATED. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 29N42W 25N42W 22N41W 19N40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N67W TO 29N72W...TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
NEAR 30N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N35W TO 15N50W 14N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRANCH GOES FROM THE 20N35W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 6N37W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W.BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 20W...COVERING
MOROCCO... MAURITANIA...ALGERIA...SPAIN... PORTUGAL...AND THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 20N35W CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE FROM 19N31W TO 25N29W
31N30W TO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N24W.

$$
MT


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