[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 05 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N10W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W...AND
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 4N77W TO 4N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W...AND SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 50W
AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N120W. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MEXICO...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N97W...WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS PACIFIC OCEAN
FEATURE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OF TWENTY-FOUR HOURS AGO
HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED INLAND...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY EASTERLY TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THE AREA IS COVERED
BY EXTREMELY DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR BUT A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA STILL IS
DRAWING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...WHERE SOME
SHOWERS APPEARED TO BE EARLIER IN THE DAY. BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH...LEFT OVER FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF
YESTERDAY...CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. WEAK RIDGE FROM 1024 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 31N82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH FROM 32N59W TO 23N71W...EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN AREA OF THE DISSIPATING
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. MORE CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 31N55W...THE
REST OF THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS 31N55W TROUGH
FEATURE WITH SUPPORT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA STILL SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N65W. DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT 27N65W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1022 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 32N67W. 1024 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N78W. 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N82W.
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N49W TO 29N52W TO 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...REMNANT OF T.D. OTTO...NEAR 26N52W...FORECAST TO BE
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH CONTINUES FROM LOW
CENTER TO 21N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. SWIRL OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND MORE CLOUDS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN
55W AND 59W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N38W TO 5N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
FORMED UNDER THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALONG 29N39W
24N39W 20N35W 14N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE 29N39W 14N36W SURFACE TROUGH...NORTH OF 10N
BEYOND 32N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net