[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 05 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N14W 7N19W 6N30W 8N44W 5N54W.
SCATTERED LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N E OF 40W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO N THE W GULF
AND E TEXAS PRODUCING NW FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 97W. PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO
CAUSING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N W
OF 84W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND GALVESTON WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E TO 29N87W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS COAST. THE LOW/TROUGH IS FUNNELING MOIST
NE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO WITH LOW CLOUDS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. OVERRUNNING
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE
INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE US OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 28N FROM 60W-80W AND CENTERED ALONG 70W. AT THE
SURFACE...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W
SW TO 28N67W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N74W WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES SW OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 24N83W.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. VERY DRY
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WITH
ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DOTTING THE REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DRAWING SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE OVER THIS
AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE EASTERLIES IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 80W.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC THAT MAINTAINS THE
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA REMAINS BLOCKED
BY THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF THE AXIS LEAVING THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
26N36W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 20N39W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR
10N47W. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM OTTO CONTINUES TO SPIN AS A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...SHOWER FREE...WITH THE SURFACE 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 26N52W...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BECOMING ELONGATED AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 500/600 NM W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS KEEPING THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALSO
FREE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF
THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVER THE E ATLC FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 26W-33W. OVER THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR
9N24W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE N OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THEN W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 32N29W. THIS FLOW COVERS
THE E ATLC E OF 33W EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE ATLC. THAT AREA IS
DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS N OF 24W W
OF 17W. AT THE SURFACE..A RIDGE REMAINS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
SW THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N43W.

$$
WALLACE



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