[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 04 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N10W 6N20W 4N30W 5N45W...AND FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W
TO 4N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COVER
MEXICO...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS. SURFACE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N96W OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW
CENTER TO 26N90W...STATIONARY FRONT 26N90W TO 26N86W. TROUGH
FROM LOW CENTER TO 22N97W. SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N83W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF
21N97W 22N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE THE RESULT
OF QUITE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...CENTERED AROUND A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ABOUT 200 NM NORTHWEST OF CARTAGENA COLOMBIA...WHICH
SPLIT OFF FROM A LARGER TROF IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE LOW IS KEEPING THE DRIEST AIR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 12N83W 14N79W 16N73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM FLORIDA GOES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 55W...BEFORE CURVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 28N37W
TO 20N42W TO 11N47W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES HAS FORCED A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...THROUGH 32N60W 27N68W...STATIONARY
FRONT 27N68W 26N73W...DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 26N73W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N83W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANT OF T.D. OTTO...
NEAR 25N51W...FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W WITH THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL 28N37W 20N42W 11N47W TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE FROM
AN 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N26W THROUGH 32N28W TO
27N35W TO 23N41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF
20N EAST OF 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL TO NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO.

$$
MT

WWWW
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