[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 04 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N20W 6N32W TO ALONG THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 9W-17W AND FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 19W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST E OF
THE APPALACHIA MOUNTAINS. SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ALONG THE N
GULF COAST STATES FROM OVER N LOUISIANA THEN N TO OVER NORTH
CAROLINE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
SPREADING ACROSS MEXICO...THE N GULF AND THE SE UNITED STATES.
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW ALONG
24N84W TO 26N86W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM A 1013 MB LOW
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF
THE LOW TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF N OF
26N E OF 94W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
IS NOW IN THE SW ATLC AND CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE SW
ATLC. BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LOW N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N75W TO THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE DRY AIR EXTENDS NW
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ABC
ISLANDS NE TO 16N64W.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM E CUBA ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS ALONG 24N68W THEN NE TO 32N55W. THIS FLOW COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 50W. LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT
EXTENDS JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF
THE REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 31N37W SW ALONG 23N45W THEN WSW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVER THE AREA N OF 24N FROM 40W-50W AND WITHIN 375 NM OF LINE
21N47W 22N63W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N73W. THE
REMNANTS OF OTTO ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY AIR WITH A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N51W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG
19N51W TO 11N53W. ONLY LOW LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH.

EAST ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N28W WITH BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 21N E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH. NARROWER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 21N27W NNW TO BEYOND 32N31W. DIVERGENCE ON THE W SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE 13N45W-21N31W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 21N E OF
18W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FROM 22N-27N E OF 18W TO
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NW AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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