[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 02 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 49.7W AT 02/0300 UTC
MOVING SSE 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  OTTO IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY WITH LESS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND CONVECTION
REMOVED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  NW SHEAR HAS
INCREASED A BIT NEAR THE CYCLONE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 49W-50W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N30W 8N50W 8N60W 5N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 33W-39W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 39W-46W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N88W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 70W-110W.  A
BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 25N DUE TO A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM MOVING E
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC S OF
25N. SIMILAR SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 32N73W 28N80W
23N90W 22N93W 18N93W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.  A BATCH OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS MOVING W WITH THE EASTERLIES.  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...
NARROWING DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 32N45W SW THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 13N73W IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THE REMNANT OF A FRONT HAS BROUGHT A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PUERTO RICO BUT OVERALL...THE
WEATHER IS RATHER DRY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  SURFACE
TROUGH LIES FROM NEAR 10N52W TO 25N44W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FOR 450-500 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.  TSTMS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 45W-52W.  SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN IN THE INCREASE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE E.  THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO CREATE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WESTWARD INTO THE ABC ISLANDS BY LATE WEEK.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THE E ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N37W WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED ITCZ CONVECTION.   A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NNE TO BEYOND 32N30W WITH PLENTIFUL UPPER CLOUDINESS W
OF THE RIDGE AXIS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  A DEEP LAYERED
GALE LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N12W WITH
AN UPPER LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO DROPS S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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