[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 01 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 49.9W AT 01/2100 UTC
MOVING SE 5 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 999 MB.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  OTTO IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY WITH LESS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND CONVECTION
REMOVED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  NW SHEAR HAS
INCREASED A BIT NEAR THE CYCLONE... FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER TO BE LIMITED TO THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N40W 6N40W 9N50W 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 16W-35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
THE MID/UPPER HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR CUBA FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TODAY CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA RIDGING NE THRU THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR BERMUDA.
DRY AIR ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT S OF 23N IN THE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN THANKS TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A W-CENTRAL
ATLC TROUGH AND THE SPRAWLING YUCATAN RIDGE.  AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT LIES FROM NEAR 31N80W TO JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING
SW TO 23.5N90W BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY SSW TO NEAR 18N93W IN
MEXICO AND INLAND OVER THE SIERRA MADRES.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
PLUS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT S OF 24N E OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGE IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS.  FARTHER N...PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO THRU SE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...BRINGING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA.  INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AS THE FRONT IN THE
GULF BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.

CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...
NARROWING DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 32N45W SW THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 13N73W IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THE REMNANT OF A FRONT HAS BROUGHT A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/SHOWERY DAY TO PUERTO RICO BUT OVERALL...THE WEATHER IS
RATHER DRY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  SURFACE TROUGH LIES
FROM NEAR 10N58W TO 26N41W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FOR 450-500 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N
OF 15N.  TSTMS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 11N-14.5N BETWEEN 45W-51W.  SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN
THE INCREASE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE E.  THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO CREATE
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WESTWARD INTO THE ABC ISLANDS BY LATE WEEK.

THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL
OF A MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 7N37W WITH FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS
FOR INCREASED ITCZ CONVECTION.   RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NNE TO
BEYOND 31N33W WITH PLENTIFUL UPPER CLOUDINESS W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC E
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EXCEPT FOR A TINY AREA NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR PORTUGAL DROPPING A COLD
FRONT THRU NW AFRICA INTO MOROCCO AND NW SAHARA TO 22N24W.  W OF
THE E ATLC FRONT...RIDGE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE AZORES TO 13N40W.

$$
BLAKE


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net