[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 01 DEC 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
FORMED YESTERDAY FROM THE GALE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
OTTO IS NEAR 31.9N 50.7W AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING E 2 KT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT AND THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 993 MB.  SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 48W-50W.  OTTO IS ON
THE N SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LOW...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY BE A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING EXCEPT THAT THE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE SO COOL...NEAR 23C.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION LIKELY AS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
INCREASE NEAR THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 5N30W 9N50W 8N60W 5N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...
THE MOST DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 31N85W 25N90W 23N93W 18N95W 20N100W MOVING SE.  STRONG
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT....IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 70W-100W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND A 120-140 KT JETSTREAM GOING AROUND THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO EXTENDS FROM NEAR
32N50W SW THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLAND CHAIN.
MOST OF THE WEATHER IS RATHER DRY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLC E OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EXCEPT FOR A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH THRU
MOROCCO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 24N E OF 24W.  RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG ABOUT 40W WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE N OF
15N.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N61W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS.  ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N48W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR
TRINIDAD AT 11N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N-21N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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