[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 312048
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST FRI SEP  3 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

22.5N  71.0W      47  X  X  X 47   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1 14 15
23.7N  73.3W       6 26  1  X 33   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1 13 14
25.0N  75.5W       X 13 14  1 28   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X 11 11
MUGM 200N 751W     X  2  1  1  4   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  8  8
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  3  4  7   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  4  4   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  5  5
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  2  2   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3
MDPP 198N 707W     7  X  X  X  7   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W    38  X  X  X 38   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  7  7
MYMM 224N 730W    17 13  X  X 30   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  9  9
MYSM 241N 745W     X 25  4  X 29   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  9  9
MYEG 235N 758W     X 12 10  1 23   VENICE FL          X  X  X  8  8
MYAK 241N 776W     X  1 13  4 18   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  8  8
MYNN 251N 775W     X  1 16  4 21   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  6  6
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  8 11 19   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  3  3
MARATHON FL        X  X  1  8  9   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  2 12 14   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2 13 15

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
C FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
D FROM  2PM THU TO  2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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