[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 311241 RRA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-311500-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
830 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...PASSING
   NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A LITTLE STRONGER...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX TODAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE
ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTH TO AGUADILLA
EAST TO FAJARDO THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO GUAYAMA...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY SUNSET...AND POSSIBLE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST..06Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...AND A WEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON...THEN CONTINUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN
AND CULEBRA ...AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. PEAK
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA BETWEEN 9 AM AND
4 PM...WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ISLANDS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THESE
ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME.

FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
JUST BRUSH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST OR INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF FRANCES COULD BRING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... BRINGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL GROW VERY CONFUSED AND HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER THIS MORNING THEN REACH
12 FEET LATER TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SPREAD
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH TODAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20
FEET...WHICH WILL GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS. ATLANTIC TIDES WILL
RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH SURF
WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT IN
NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND THEN BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER. SIMILAR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AROUND
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THESE TIMES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES
MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER THE EYE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING
BANKFULL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 11 AM BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU












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