[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 311000 RRA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-311400-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...PASSING NORTH OF
   ANEGADA...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX TODAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE
ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTH TO AGUADILLA
EAST TO FAJARDO THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO GUAYAMA...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING THIS
MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY SUNSET...AND POSSIBLE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST..06Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH
OF ST MAARTEN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...180 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST
THOMAS...OR ABOUT 210 MILES NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA...OR ABOUT 230
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN.

FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...AND A WEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON...THEN CONTINUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA THIS MORNING...WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN
AND CULEBRA AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 4 PM...WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THESE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME.

FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
JUST BRUSH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST OR INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF FRANCES COULD BRING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... BRINGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL GROW VERY CONFUSED AND HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER THIS MORNING THEN REACH
12 FEET LATER TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SPREAD
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH TODAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20
FEET...WHICH WILL GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS. ATLANTIC TIDES WILL
RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH SURF
WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT IN
NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST THE
SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND CULEBRA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND NUMEROUS
LATER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AROUND
10 AM...THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THESE
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL AFTER THE EYE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED DURING TODAY.
RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING
BANKFULL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 9 AM BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU










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