[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 310244
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST THU SEP  2 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.9N  66.3W      53  1  X  X 54   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X 14 14
21.8N  69.1W       1 37  X  X 38   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X 15 15
23.0N  71.9W       X  7 23  1 31   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X 11 11
TIST 183N 650W     3  X  X  X  3   ST THOMAS VI       3  X  X  X  3
MDSD 185N 697W     X  2  1  X  3   SAN JUAN PR        4  X  X  X  4
MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  1  1  2   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  4  4
MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  1  5  6   MIAMI FL           X  X  X  7  7
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  5  5   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  7  7
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  2  2   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  6  6
TJSJ 184N 661W     4  X  X  X  4   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  5  5
MDPP 198N 707W     X  7  5  1 13   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3
MBJT 215N 712W     X 15 12  X 27   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
MYMM 224N 730W     X  1 20  2 23   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  3  3
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X 14  9 23   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  3  3
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  5 13 18   VENICE FL          X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
C FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
D FROM  8PM WED TO  8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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