[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 310028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 30 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRANCES CENTER NEAR 19.6N 60.7W OR ABOUT 190 MILES/
390 KM NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AT
31/0000 UTC...MOVING WEST 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W
AND 61W. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL
UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. CROIX.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE CENTER NEAR 39.9N 71.3W OR ABOUT
110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MARTHA'S VINEYARD MASSACHUSETTS...
MOVING NORTH 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 45 KT GUSTS
55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC OR MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 36N TO 39N BETWEEN 70W
AND 73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N21W...115 NM EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE...POSITIONED IS BASED SOLELY ON CLIMATOLOGY.

TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG
93W/94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N1W 15N17W 10N30W 9N40W 14N55W
10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
SENEGAL FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
FROM 1N TO 20N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N20W 9N30W 5N47W...AND FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DUG ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 27N96W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WATERS ALONG 31N88W
28N90W 26N95W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS SOUTH OF 29N TO THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS EAST OF 100W AT 20N...IN THE GULF WATERS
NORTHWEST OF 20N96W 23N90W 30N87W...AND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 24N87W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE 24N87W CYCLONIC CENTER...LEADS TO MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. STILL ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM HAITI TO
THE NORTHWESTERN END OF CUBA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY ITCZ RELATED...IN
COLOMBIA NORTH OF 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND 81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WHERE THERE IS NO EASILY DISCERNIBLE AREA
OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 32N27W TO 29N37W TO 25N50W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 80W...INCLUDING AWAY FROM HURRICANE FRANCES. THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS...AWAY FROM HURRICANE FRANCES AND SOUTH OF THE
29N37W 25N50W TROUGH TO 10N WEST OF 40W AND AWAY FROM THE
ITCZ...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AN 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 115 NM EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W...
AND HURRICANE FRANCES IS 220 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVELS CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM WEST AFRICA...
UP AND OVER THE AREA OF THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER...
CONTINUING TO 17N34W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST FLOW
CONTINUES FROM 17N34W TOWARD 14N50W.

$$
MT




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