[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 302026
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST THU SEP  2 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.2N  64.8W      47  X  X  X 47   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  9 10 19
21.0N  67.4W       3 29  X  X 32   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  2 16 18
22.0N  70.0W       X  8 17  1 26   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X 15 15
TNCM 181N 631W     9  X  X  X  9   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X 10 10
TISX 177N 648W     4  2  X  X  6   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X 11 11
TIST 183N 650W    13  3  1  X 17   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  7  7
TJPS 180N 666W     2  7  1  X 10   ST CROIX VI        4  2  X  X  6
MDSD 185N 697W     X  3  6  1 10   ST THOMAS VI      13  3  1  X 17
MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  2  1  3   SAN JUAN PR        8  8  X  1 17
MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  3  3  6   PONCE PR           2  7  1  X 10
MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  1  2  3   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  2  2
MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  1  6  7   MIAMI FL           X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  4  4   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  4  4
TJSJ 184N 661W     8  8  X  1 17   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  3  3
MDPP 198N 707W     X  3 11  2 16   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W     X  2 17  3 22

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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