[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 300349
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-300630-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...

...WATCHES...
AS OF 11 PM...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM AST...HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST...OR ABOUT...585 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS
OR ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF CULEBRA.

THE HURRICANE WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 MPH...WITH A WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND WERE
NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS NOW MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND CULEBRA MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND
SPREAD ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND CULEBRA BY AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY...AND INCREASE
TO 6 FEET AND GREATER MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND SEAS TO
12 FEET ACROSS THESE MARINE AREAS. SURF AND TIDES WILL BEGIN
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX AND THE EAST
AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE BRITISH AND REMAINING U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING MONDAY...WHERE HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED. AS
FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES PUERTO RICO LATER MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND NUMEROUS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE FRANCES MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. RAPID RIVER
AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2:30 AM BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN...PUERTO
RICO.

RM/SS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU










This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net