[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 292057
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED SEP  1 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

35.6N  73.1W      42  X  X  X 42   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X 16  X  X 16
39.0N  72.0W       1 22  X  X 23   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  9  X  X  9
WILMINGTON NC      2  2  X  X  4   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  6  X  X  6
MOREHEAD CITY NC  10  6  X  X 16   PROVIDENCE RI      X  3  X  X  3
CAPE HATTERAS NC  23  5  X  X 28   NANTUCKET MA       X  3  X  X  3
NORFOLK VA         5 16  X  X 21   HYANNIS MA         X  2  X  X  2
OCEAN CITY MD      1 22  X  X 23

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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