[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 291816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 29 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GASTON MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.  IT IS CENTERED NEAR 33.2N 79.5W...ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AT 1500 UTC MOVING N AT
7 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 79W-81W.

HURRICANE FRANCES IS CENTER NEAR 18.6N 54.7W AT 29/1500 UTC
MOVING W 8 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO
140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 31N71W ABOUT 300 NM W OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 70W-72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10 KNOTS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 9N-13N
BETWEEN 16W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 38W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED MAINLY WITH IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS LOCATED MAINLY S OF 10N IN
THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N10W 8N37W 8N44W 12N55W 10N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
21W-38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 75W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N88W TO
28N96W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 87W-96W.  A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
0F MEXICO NEAR 25N89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N94W WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE N OF THE CENTER.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
18N-27N BETWEEN 90W-100W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 80W-90W.

W ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N71N MOVING NW.  SEE
ABOVE.  STRONG EASTERLIES ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND INLAND
HONDURAS HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ N OF PANAMA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S
TO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 67W-80W.  CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND N
COLOMBIA HAS WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN
90W-70W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N59W. THIS HIGH AND RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER ON WHERE HURRICANE FRANCES
GOES.  ANOTHER 1027 HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N28W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N62W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 57W-65W.  ANOTHER WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N35W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE
DEEP TROPICS.  A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG 17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 28N10W WSW TO 20N30W 20N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER HURRICANE FRANCES FROM 10N-27N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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