[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 291440
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THE HURRICANE IS IN STEADY STATE AND HAS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
REPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A LARGE EYE. BECAUSE THERE
IS LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE...THE T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED A LITTLE BIT...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE
AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 115 KNOTS UNTIL DIRECT MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.  AT THIS POINT...FRANCES COULD
EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE OR COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

AS THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING...FRANCES IS NOW MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 18.6N  54.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.8N  56.1W   120 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W   120 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W   120 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N  63.5W   120 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N  68.7W   120 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N  72.6W   125 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W   125 KT


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