[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 290838
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  54.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST WED SEP  1 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.5N  57.4W      49  X  X  X 49   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  1 11 12
19.9N  59.8W      10 25  X  X 35   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  6  6
20.3N  62.3W       X 13 14  1 28   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  3 11 14
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  2  1  3   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  6  6
80400 157N 636W    X  X  1  4  5   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  8  8
TFFR 163N 615W     X  2  4  2  8   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  3  3
TAPA 171N 618W     X  4  7  2 13   ST CROIX VI        X  X  5  8 13
TKPK 173N 627W     X  2  9  3 14   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  7  9 16
TNCM 181N 631W     X  2 13  3 18   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  3 11 14
TISX 177N 648W     X  X  5  8 13   PONCE PR           X  X  1 11 12
TIST 183N 650W     X  X  7  9 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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