[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

Nashville EMWIN emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Aug 28 21:25:03 CDT 2004


WTNT72 KNHC 290224
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

33.6N  79.7W      41  X  X  X 41   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  2 11 13
35.1N  79.0W      11 10  1  X 22   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 12 12
36.7N  77.0W       X  5 10  2 17   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X 10 10
SAVANNAH GA       26  X  X  X 26   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  9  9
CHARLESTON SC     57  X  X  X 57   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  8  8
MYRTLE BEACH SC   32  X  X  X 32   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  8  8
WILMINGTON NC     12  7  1  1 21   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  8  8
MOREHEAD CITY NC   1 11  4  1 17   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  5  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  5  8  2 15   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  3  3
NORFOLK VA         X  2 11  3 16   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  2  2
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  6  8 14

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
C FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
D FROM  8PM MON TO  8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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