[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 281825
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 28 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 31.4N 78.5W AT 28/1500
UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB MOVING W AT 2 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 76W-80W.

HURRICANE FRANCES IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 51.9W AT 28/1200 UTC
MOVING NW 8 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 130 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  FRANCES IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NO SHEAR AND WARM SEA TEMPERATURES.
EYE DIAMETER IS 20 NM AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER ALL QUADRANTS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
49W-55W.

1014 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 30N67W ABOUT 200 MILES SSW OF
BERMUDA.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15-20 KT.  THIS WAVE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 16N10W 11N20W 7N33W 8N50W 10N60W 10N70W
8N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 18W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-30W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
86W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
MEXICO NEAR 25N100W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N86W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 81W-91W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N78W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER PANAMA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
23N86W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 17N72W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 65W-80W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE T.S. GASTON... AND 1014 MB LOW...IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...A STATIONARY FRONT IS IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 33N50W 32N60W 32N66W.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N78W.
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N70W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E AT 26N62W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
21N37W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE
DEEP TROPICS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA NEAR 1N57W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 42W-66W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net