[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT72 KNHC 280225
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.6N  78.9W      99  X  X  X 99   NORFOLK VA         X  2  5  6 13
32.7N  79.3W      83  X  X  X 83   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2  7  9
33.8N  78.9W      18  5  1  1 25   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1  6  7
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  2  2   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  5  5
FT PIERCE FL       X  1  1  2  4   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     1  1  2  2  6   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  2  2
DAYTONA BEACH FL   3  4  1  2 10   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    6  5  2  1 14   VENICE FL          X  X  1  1  2
SAVANNAH GA       13  5  1  1 20   TAMPA FL           X  1  1  2  4
CHARLESTON SC     23  2  1  X 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  2  2  5
MYRTLE BEACH SC   19  5  1  X 25   ST MARKS FL        X  X  2  2  4
WILMINGTON NC     10  8  2  1 21   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   3  7  3  3 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  2  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  3  4  5 12   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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