[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 231106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 23 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD
AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL ROTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS
IS A POORLY-DEFINED WAVE WITH NO DEFINING PRECIPITATION WHICH
ACCOMPANIES IT...SUCH AS IN THE CASE OF THE CAPE VERDE WAVE.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N
TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN COASTAL HONDURAS. ISOLATED CELL OF
PRECIPITATION IN GULF OF HONDURAS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N17W 10N30W 10N40W 9N50W 10N62W. ISOLATED CELLS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SIX HOURS AGO NOW HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED IN A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST SENSE...NOW REACHING THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR STRETCHES
FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND INTERIOR MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 97.5W AND 99W.
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF WATERS. RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN STRETCHES EASTWARD TO FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
WESTERN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN HONDURAS. ISOLATED CELL OF PRECIPITATION
IN SOUTHERN BELIZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN SHORES OF JAMAICA.
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND INFORMATION FROM 23/0900 UTC
SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WEST OF 70W.
SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 33N52W TO 15N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE BAHAMAS
TO NORTHERN SHORES OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE
IMMEDIATED VICINITY FROM CUBA SHORES TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THAT ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...IN BETWEEN THIS BAHAMAS TROUGH
AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
33N52W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE TROUGH 31N54W
22N55W 13N55W. QUASI-STATIONARY 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N68W...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... TROUGHING ALONG 36W N OF 14N DIVIDES THE
ATLC INTO A MOIST E ATLC AND RATHER DRY W ATLC.  TRADES ARE VERY
LIGHT IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING
10 KT OR LESS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 30W TO 55W.  MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH HAS SNUCK INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION N OF 14N W OF 50W.
RIDGING IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE E ATLC WITH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE ITCZ.

$$
MT



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