[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 210807
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

THE PAST 24 HOUR MOTION IS 290/03 AND THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS
235/04...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.  THE
GFS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE
AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THEN AFTER 72 HOURS...A
MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS RESPOND TO THIS SCENARIO WITH A GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY FIRE UP TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL AGAIN SHOWS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE DANIELLE REACHES
COLD WATER.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION AFTER
36 HOURS.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL DANIELLE DEGENERATES INTO A
REMNANT LOW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0900Z 30.6N  38.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 30.9N  39.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 31.5N  40.1W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 32.3N  40.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 33.9N  42.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 38.0N  43.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 43.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z 47.0N  32.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


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