[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 20 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
30.8N 37.4W OR ABOUT 775 MILES/1245 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES...AT 20/1500 UTC. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT
2 MPH/4 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN
34W AND 38W. THE CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE STILL IS AT THE EASTERN
EDGE OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
TROUGH THROUGH 33N38W TO 29N42W 24N43W. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W/25W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWS UP
WELL IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N TO 17N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 270 NM EAST OF BARBADOS...ALONG 54W/55W
SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND
54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE 54W/55W TROPICAL
WAVES...FROM 10N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. IT IS NOT EASILY FOUND...POSSIBLY WITH THE
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ALREADY HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN
30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 14N69W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 17N16W THROUGH MAURITANIA TO 17N23W...TO 11N30W 9N40W 9N50W
TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. ALONG 17N16W 20N21W...THEN
ALONG 12N26W 9N40W 10N50W...THEN ALONG 7N56W 9N64W 8N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
32W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
48W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 74W-84W OVER PARTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BLOWS OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS IT MOVES ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO...ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AS
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
GEORGIA AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NORTH 0F 24N EAST OF 90W...AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W
AND 83W. A FEW SHOWERS IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N63W...TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N73W. SHEAR AXIS FROM 17N73W
TO 14N77W TO SW CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 11N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
150-200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE
IS CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...VIA SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE 54W/55W TROPICAL
WAVES...FROM 10N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. NUMEROUS STRONG
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W IN
COLOMBIA AND 85W AND COSTA RICA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE STILL IS AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 33N38W
TO 29N42W 24N43W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. SHEAR AXIS FROM 24N43W TO 28N56W...TO SECOND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N63W.
TROUGH FROM 24N63W...TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 17N73W. SHEAR AXIS FROM 17N73W TO 14N77W TO SW
CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 11N78W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
RIDGE ALONG 22N53W 14N56W. INVERTED TROUGH...SURROUNDED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...ALONG 23N29W 18N33W 12N36W.
TROUGH ON TOP OF THE ITCZ ALONG 13N45W 5N47W. TROUGH FROM
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N13W...JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN
MOROCCO...TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO.

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net